According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8841 yuan/ton on December 20th, and the average price was 8881 yuan/ton on December 26th, with a price increase of 0.45% during this period. LDPE (2426H) decreased by 0.47% during this period. HDPE (2426H) increased by 0.29% during this period.

Recently, polyethylene has shown mixed ups and downs. Linear products remain strong, while low-voltage products fluctuate slightly and rise slightly, while high-voltage products decline. The supply of high-voltage products has increased, but the price trend is weak; The supply of linear products is tight, and the supply pressure is high, resulting in a strong upward trend in prices. The planned production of facilities in 2024 is generally delayed. The downstream industry of polyethylene has entered the off-season, with limited demand support. The narrow range consolidation of crude oil prices, overall, indicates weak oil and commodity prices, which is bearish for the polyethylene market.

On December 26th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8437 yuan and closed at 8463 yuan, up 19 yuan, with a high of 8466 yuan and a low of 8422 yuan, up 0.23%.

The production capacity of new facilities is gradually increasing, there are fewer planned maintenance facilities, the previously shut down facilities are gradually being restarted, and coupled with the gradual arrival of imported goods at the port, there are expectations of an increase in the supply side; Downstream demand continues to weaken, with rigid procurement being the main focus; The cost side crude oil support is limited, and it is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the linear product trend is relatively strong.

Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: On December 25th, the average market price was 6670 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis points: The isopropanol market has slightly increased today. The confidence in the market is still good. Recently, the price of acetone in the upstream market has risen, and cost support has driven confidence in the isopropanol market. The intention of holders to lower their prices has weakened, and the offer is relatively strong. Downstream inquiries are relatively active, procurement is on demand, and transactions are cautious. The market offers in Shandong and South China are relatively stable, while prices in the Jiangsu market are rising. Overall, market trading is relatively flexible and mainly follows the market trend. It is expected that the isopropanol market will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On December 24th, the average market price was 7518 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today, the domestic pure benzene market prices are weak and consolidating, and the trading atmosphere in the market is average. International crude oil futures closed down, and the price of pure benzene in foreign markets fell, affecting confidence in the domestic pure benzene market. Accumulated inventory in East China ports, loose offers from cargo holders, and slight reductions in offers from some refineries in Shandong. As the contract delivery period approaches, the market is more active in the circulation of low-priced goods. It is expected that the pure benzene market will operate on a weak strong basis in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from last week this week (12.16-20). As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4980 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.64% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Since December, PVC prices have continued to decline. This week, due to the lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, The price of PVC continues to decline. On the one hand, due to the impact of low upstream crude oil prices, ethylene has shown weak performance. In addition, the poor performance of the futures market has put pressure on the spot market. Combined with the loose performance of supply and demand, the operating rate of manufacturers has generally increased in the past two months, with over half of them operating at full capacity. Supply pressure is prominent, and dealer offers are declining steadily. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4850-5080 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since December, the price of calcium carbide has started to decline, mainly from high levels. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide fell by 0.58% last week. Overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week was weak, with limited support, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there will be a slight surplus of PVC supply and demand in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory will be high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

This week (December 16-20, 2024), the upstream cost support weakened, and the market price of nylon filament slightly fell. The cost side support is weak, downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm is not high, multi-dimensional holding of essential orders, and the demand side has not shown significant improvement. Negative factors dominate the market, and the nylon fiber market price is weak and declining. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the trend of the cost side and changes in downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament slightly decreased this week (December 16-20, 2024). As of December 20, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decrease of 0.57%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.34%. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 18175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.41%.

Weakness and decline in raw materials

This week (December 16-20, 2024), the upstream raw material caprolactam plant for nylon filament was operating normally, with sustained high inventory and low downstream purchasing willingness. The trading atmosphere was calm, and the caprolactam market price continued to decline. Lack of confidence in the industrial chain, shrinking actual trading volume in the nylon PA6 chip market, with no positive support from both upstream and downstream, and insufficient confidence among industry players. As of December 20th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11216 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18%.

Supply demand

The operating rate of nylon filament market equipment is relatively high, currently operating at around 8.4%. The inventory of various manufacturers continues to accumulate, and the overall supply performance on site is loose, with average supply side support; There is still no significant improvement in demand in the terminal market, and downstream yarn factories have a certain degree of risk aversion. They hold onto multiple essential orders, and it is difficult to find positive support from the demand side during the week.

Future forecast

The market for nylon filament raw material caprolactam is expected to continue its downward trend, with inventory pressure remaining high and supply side still under pressure. Spot prices are weakly stable and consolidating, market sentiment is bearish, and the industry chain is mostly pessimistic. Terminal market demand remains weak, with bearish factors prevailing in the market. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly experience a weak downward trend.