Analysis: This week (11.11-15), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.69%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, there will be a low season for agricultural demand procurement, and industrial demand will follow suit with sufficient supply. However, the supply pressure may partially ease in the later period. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. On the other hand, the export of liquid ammonia may improve. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, while industrial demand urgently needs to follow up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, and there is a possibility of a price rebound.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 15th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12120 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to November 8th. Compared to November 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since November, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal # 441 has shown a stable operation after rising. At the beginning of the month, there was a slight upward adjustment in the spot market for silicon metal in some regions of China, including Tianjin and Huangpu Port. The market price of silicon metal # 441 increased by 50 yuan/ton. The market prices of Metal Silicon # 441 and Metal Silicon 553 # (oxygen supply) in Kunming area have increased by 50 yuan and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of silicon metal # 553 (without oxygen) in Sichuan region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the spot market for silicon metal # 441 remained stable until mid month. As of November 15th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11900-12400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental situation

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of metal silicon enterprises in northern China has not changed much, with the northern region maintaining a high level of construction, while the construction rate of metal silicon in Sichuan Yunnan region has decreased to some extent.

On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply of silicon metal in the market has narrowed. With the downward adjustment of silicon metal production in some regions, it is expected that the overall market output will also decrease. The overall supply of silicon metal has contracted, and there is not much pressure on the spot market supply, resulting in tight circulation.

In terms of demand, the overall demand performance of downstream silicon metal is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the overall demand side has not changed much compared to the previous period.

In terms of inventory: According to incomplete statistics, on November 8th, the estimated social inventory of domestic silicon metal was around 499000 tons, a decrease of about 3000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, there were about 156000 tons in ordinary warehouses, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from last week.

In terms of production: According to incomplete statistics, China’s industrial silicon production in October was about 470000 tons, an increase of about 15700 tons compared to the previous month, with a growth rate of about 3.5%. From January to October 2024, the cumulative production of industrial silicon in China was about 4.1626 million tons, an increase of about 1.115 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of about 36.6%.

Market Price Trends of Metal Silicon

Brand number/ Region/ November 15th

#441./Tianjin area/ Around 11900~12100 yuan/ton

#441./Huangpu Port area/ Around 12000~12200 yuan/ton

#441./Kunming area/ Around 12200~12400 yuan/ton

#553 (oxygen supply)/ Kunming area/ Around 11700~11900 yuan/ton

#553 (without oxygen)/ Sichuan region/ Around 11200~11400 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, downstream purchases are made according to quantity, and the transmission of supply and demand remains weak. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine is running steadily. On November 12th, the average market price of bromine was around 22400 yuan/ton. On November 11th, the bromine commodity index was 78.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.94% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.40% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of bromine has been running steadily, with prices in the Shandong region temporarily stable. The mainstream market price is around 22000-23000 yuan/ton, and the equipment is running smoothly with normal supply. The market trading atmosphere is calm, and in terms of demand, the main downstream flame retardant demand remains stable, which has been boosted compared to the pre holiday period. However, the overall supply-demand game price is running steadily. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices are operating steadily, with an average market price of 1624.33 yuan/ton on November 12th. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. Downstream flame retardants have a high level of enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases, which has boosted the overall market trend. Downstream inquiries are also more active in the supply-demand game. Overall, it is predicted that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Market Overview: In November, the domestic acrylonitrile market prices continued to slowly rise, with major factories in East China operating at low loads. The temporary tightening of supply provided favorable market conditions, coupled with an increase in downstream demand, and continued to rise this week.

On the supply side: During the week, major factories in East China were operating at low loads, and supply in the region continued to be tight. The northern market was operating at full capacity. As of November 8th, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate reached 71.15%, a decrease of -2.27% compared to the same period last week. The total output of the factory during the week decreased to 65800 tons, a decrease of 3.09% compared to last week, and the inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 47900 tons, a decrease of 3.04% compared to last week.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market fluctuated at a high level, with the mainstream closing reference being 6840-6980 yuan/ton. During the week, a 600000 ton/year PDH plant in North China was shut down, boosting market sentiment. At the same time, enterprise inventories were mostly in a low position, providing support for price trends. However, there is still a large price difference between regions, which exacerbates downstream buying caution. It is expected that short-term adjustments will continue to be mainly volatile.

In terms of demand, the utilization rate of downstream ABS production capacity has increased to 72.3%, an increase of about 3.5% compared to the same period last week, with a slight increase in demand for acrylonitrile.

Market expectation: Currently, the tight supply in the East China region is expected to continue for a long time, and overall demand is also showing some growth. Northern resources are gradually flowing into the East China market, easing the excess pressure in the north, and the market as a whole continues to explore.

Domestic policies are favorable, and nickel prices have been rising steadily this week (11.1-11.8). According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, spot nickel prices were reported at 130791 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.41%.

Macroscopically, the decline of the US dollar over the weekend provided support for the trend of basic metals. The weak US dollar made US dollar denominated metals cheaper for foreign currency holders, boosting the London metal market to generally close higher. Nickel prices fluctuated and rose with the trend, breaking away from the previous continuous decline, and the domestic market rose accordingly. According to Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director of Norilsk Nickel, in a speech on November 6th, 250000 tons of nickel supply have been shut down in the global market since 2023, with an additional 170000 tons facing potential shutdown risks. The tight supply situation in the global nickel market is becoming increasingly apparent. China’s 60000 ton nickel production capacity may face shutdown, posing a severe challenge to the global nickel market’s supply-demand balance. Concerns about reduced nickel ore supply have boosted nickel prices. On the same day, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China publicly solicited opinions on the draft action plan for high-quality development of the new energy storage manufacturing industry. The draft proposes to increase support for mineral resources such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel in China, scientifically and orderly allocate mining rights, and enhance domestic resource security capabilities. The favorable domestic policies have led to a continued upward trend in nickel prices this week, which has continued to strengthen.

On the supply side, foreign inventory has grown rapidly, while the number of goods that meet delivery quality in China has slightly increased, resulting in continued oversupply. As of November 8th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 31216 tons, an increase of 474 tons from last Friday; On November 8th, LME nickel inventory was 150336 tons, an increase of 14814 tons from last Friday.

On the demand side: Stainless steel rebounded slightly within the week. On November 8th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of the month. Stainless steel supply remained high, and the improvement effect of macro favorable policies such as real estate on stainless steel demand still needs time to wait. Overall, the performance is average. With last week’s low prices and a certain amount of stock available, there is a strong need for procurement.

Market forecast: Macro positive news continues to boost, but inventory pressure poses price resistance, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.