At the beginning of November, the domestic ABS market remained stable with small movements, and the fluctuation range of spot prices for various grades was relatively narrow. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 6th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11500 yuan/ton, basically returning to last week’s price level.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In early November, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry continued to rise, and the load level continued to increase. Following the resumption of work at the Huajin and Tianjin Dagu facilities in late October, the load of Tianjin Dagu and Jilin Petrochemical also increased last week, and the industry’s operating rate rose by 2% to nearly 69%. Recently, the overall production of goods has exceeded the digestion pattern, with a weekly output of over 110000 tons and inventory levels remaining at a high level of over 190000 tons. Overall, in early November, the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices improved and declined.

Cost factor: Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have shown mixed trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. The acrylonitrile market saw a slight increase. Last week, the No.1 acrylonitrile unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical entered maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production capacity utilization rate in the East China region and a tightening of supply. At the same time, the price constraint is formed by the supply gap between the north and south of China, and the domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to remain strong.

In early November, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. Due to the continued loose market supply, the confidence of holders has been dragged down, and there has been an increase in discount orders. The profit transfer in downstream markets is limited, and the bottoming out effect of consumer power is average. In the short term, the concentration of imported goods at the port, coupled with the decline in foreign prices, has jointly impacted the spot market prices. The current bearish guidance in the spot market makes it difficult to be optimistic about the future market.

Last week, the styrene market fluctuated and rose. The performance of crude oil in the far end of the range has rebounded, but the supply of pure benzene as the direct raw material has remained loose, and the cost support of styrene is average. On the supply side, the support for the spot market is still acceptable due to the low inventory levels in various ports and the low industry load. However, businesses are concerned about the impact of the off-season on consumption, and although there are many inquiries in the market, actual orders tend to be cautious.

In terms of demand, the main terminal demand for ABS remained weak in early November. With the traditional peak season of stocking up during the previous “Golden September and Silver October” coming to an end, the mentality of consumers has fallen to a low point. Entering this month, there is still a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the venue. The overall load position of downstream home appliances and other factories has limited recovery, and the willingness of terminal stocking is not strong. Purchasing operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Merchants have insufficient willingness to establish warehouses, and their offers are subject to market conditions, resulting in a slowdown in the flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

At the beginning of November, the domestic ABS market remained weak and organized. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant continues to rise slightly, and the inventory of finished products remains high. The weak demand on the demand side is difficult to change, and market trading is sluggish. The mismatch between supply and demand within the venue has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the ABS market will mainly operate weakly in the short term in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated narrowly in October, with some spot prices of certain brands falling below pre holiday levels. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16000 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.62% compared to early October.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In October, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs showed limited changes. As of the 31st, the industry average operating rate fluctuated from 79% at the beginning of the month to around 81%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The loose supply pattern in October has not changed, and it is difficult to see good news on the supply side. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and factory pricing is under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A significantly decreased in October. The direct raw materials of bisphenol A, phenol and acetone, fell in the first half of the month, but stabilized at the end of the month and rebounded narrowly. The downstream production changes of the two main forces are limited, coupled with insufficient stocking heat, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A is not good. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the load of the bisphenol A industry returned to be relatively high, and the supply of goods increased in the middle of the month. Overall, bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Last month, the traditional peak season “Golden September” terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues until the end of October. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. At this point, the traditional peak season for PC sales this year has come to an end, and the demand side is unable to provide strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market rose in early October due to macroeconomic factors such as improved sentiment in the commodity market, and then returned to fundamental guidance, with gains giving up. The upstream bisphenol A market fell sharply, and although there were signs of a halt at the end of the month, the overall cost support for PC was weak. The load of domestic aggregation plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Currently, the center of gravity of domestic PC prices has fallen below early October. Downstream peak season consumption has not been realized, and weak rigid demand stocking is difficult to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. Although PC prices have fallen to the low point range of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.

Since October, the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 15580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.52% from 16490 yuan/ton at the beginning of October. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Within the month, the supply price of butadiene rubber has gradually decreased, and as of October 31st, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber is between 15450 and 15650 yuan/ton.

Since October, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the price of butadiene was 12325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.04% from 13700 yuan/ton at the beginning of October.

In October, the domestic butadiene rubber plant started operating at a low level, and as of the end of the month, the production rate was around 5.90%. The supply pressure of butadiene rubber is not high.

Demand side: Since October, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of October 25th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly decrease, leading to a decrease in the cost of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for Shunding rubber may experience weak fluctuations in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (10.25-10.30), with an average market price of 254500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 255190 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.27%.

Overall this week, news about tin mines in Myanmar has been frequent, and downstream purchasing sentiment is relatively cautious. After Yunxi resumed production, domestic supply resumed and social inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Refineries are facing obstacles in their pricing mentality and their shipments are restricted. The buyer’s mentality in the spot market is cautious, and the overall demand growth is lower than expected. After causing a slight rebound in tin prices, there was a slight decline. But the terminal inquiry heat is good, traders have increased shipments, and the overall market atmosphere is better than last week.

The weakening of the supply and demand margin makes it difficult to provide support for tin prices, and there is significant resistance to price increases. It is expected that tin prices will adjust weakly between high and low regions.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on October 29th was around 1582 yuan/ton. On October 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 105.07, a decrease of 0.59 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.45% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 19.03% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and operating. The factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1584 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.