The price of ethylene glycol was relatively strong in the first half of July, but began to decline slightly last week. Currently, the price is beginning to digest sideways. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 22, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4680 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.59% from the average price of 4561.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on July 1. The prices in each region are as follows:

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4700-4950 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4650 yuan/ton, and the external execution price range of mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4650 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

On July 22, 2024, the spot basis of ethylene glycol at the port stopped falling and stabilized, while the contract basis was close to low and far from high. The lower basis price for July rose slightly by 5 yuan/ton today. As of the close, the lower basis price for July was 20-23 yuan/ton, and the lower basis price for August was 29-32 yuan/ton.

On July 22nd, the price of coal to ethylene glycol was relatively low, with a domestic price range of 4100-4330 yuan/ton, including taxes.

Inventory data shows a slight rebound

In the early stage, the explicit inventory data of the port significantly decreased, driving the price of ethylene glycol from 4400 yuan/ton to over 4700 yuan/ton. Recently, the inventory data has slightly rebounded. On July 22, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 598600 tons, an increase of 3700 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 594900 tons on July 18.

Recent device updates

A set of 1.8 million tons of ethylene glycol in Jiangsu, with an initial production of 900000 tons, was shut down in early April. The production line is scheduled to restart this week and is expected to be discharged in the second half of the week; The other 900000 unit is currently operating at 80-90% load.

The 400000 ton/year ethylene glycol/EO unit of Fujian United was temporarily shut down last weekend due to a malfunction, with an expected shutdown time of 1-2 weeks.

There is a high probability of a sideways trend in the price of ethylene glycol

Under the expectation of import pre increase, the driving effect of inventory factors on prices in the early stage is weakening. Currently, inventory is relatively low, which provides some support for prices; In terms of demand, downstream polyester is reducing production to maintain prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will enter a sideways digestion stage in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (7.12-7.19). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 275460 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the beginning of this week was 261610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.03%.

The recent decline in tin prices is mainly influenced by fundamentals and macro sentiment. Recently, although the export of Indonesian tin ingots has not fully recovered, the marginal export volume has gradually increased, and the Myanmar mine has also increased due to the clearance of inventory from the beneficiation plant last month. The supply side support for tin prices has decreased. Lunxi significantly reduced its inventory at the beginning of the year, and currently its inventory has dropped to around 4000 tons, with a reduction rate of nearly 50%. Domestic inventory reached a high of 19400 tons at the end of May, and after a month of destocking, it dropped to 16100 tons in July. Domestic and international destocking provides support for tin prices.

On the demand side, semiconductor consumption is expected to improve solder material consumption this year, but currently has limited impact on overall demand. Domestic tinplate has shown some improvement driven by exports, but the accumulated inventory pressure is not small.

It is expected that the exchange will maintain a destocking status in the third quarter. The supply-demand contradiction is not severe, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 16th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was 8945.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% compared to last Thursday (July 11th).

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the epoxy propane market has been rising recently. As of July 16th, the mainstream price reference for epoxy propane in Shandong’s market is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends:

On the cost side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly and weakly, and the price of raw material liquid chlorine has risen slightly. The cost side continues to support the epoxy propane market.

Supply and demand side: In recent times, there have been fluctuations in individual devices, with an increase in new orders for downstream polyether. The demand side has also improved, leading to an improvement in the shipping atmosphere for enterprises. The focus of negotiations in the epoxy propane market has shifted upwards. With the rise in prices, downstream procurement attitudes are cautious, with a focus on observing and following up appropriately.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that short-term market cost support still exists, and there is currently no pressure on supply side inventory. Downstream stable follow-up is the main trend, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market may rise steadily in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

On July 16th, the domestic fluorite market trend declined. The mainstream price for fluorite negotiations in Inner Mongolia was 3400 to 3500 yuan/ton, in Jiangxi it was 3600 to 3700 yuan/ton, and in Henan it was 3550 to 3700 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of high temperatures and heavy rainfall, some fluorite production was restricted, and the supply remained tight. However, downstream demand for fluorite did not improve, and on-demand procurement was the main focus. The fluorite supply situation was average, and the fluorite market was weak and declining.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 21100 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 20480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% and an increase of 12.53% compared to the same period last year. On July 14th, the bromine commodity index was 71.86, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.69% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 21.96% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been running weakly, with prices in Shandong region running weakly. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton, and there is a large amount of imported bromine arriving at the port. The production of bromine in brine and seawater is stable. The downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, with poor demand, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 1293.33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 67.96% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and agricultural and intermediate demand is average, resulting in poor demand. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to operate weakly in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.