1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 21100 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 20480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% and an increase of 12.53% compared to the same period last year. On July 14th, the bromine commodity index was 71.86, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.69% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 21.96% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been running weakly, with prices in Shandong region running weakly. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton, and there is a large amount of imported bromine arriving at the port. The production of bromine in brine and seawater is stable. The downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, with poor demand, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 1293.33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 67.96% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and agricultural and intermediate demand is average, resulting in poor demand. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to operate weakly in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has fallen this month, with a price of 9318 yuan/ton on July 1st; On July 12th, the price was 8834.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.26% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 36.54% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The inventory of ports in East China has increased. The inventory of pure benzene in ports in Jiangsu region is 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. The market supply is abundant, and there is an increase in downstream maintenance equipment for pure benzene. It is expected that inventory will rise in July and August. The pure benzene market stopped falling after a downturn. At present, negotiations for pure benzene are approaching 8750 yuan/ton.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has dropped to 8800 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

The market price of styrene has slightly increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. At present, the inventory of styrene at the port is low, and the production of styrene units has decreased significantly, resulting in a decrease in supply expectations. However, downstream demand is weak, which may suppress the rise of styrene prices. Business analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil: NYMEX crude oil futures contract 08 rose $0.52 per barrel or 0.63% to 82.62; ICE Brent Oil Futures 09 contract rose $0.32 per barrel or 0.38% to 85.40. The main contract for Chinese INE crude oil futures, 2408, fell 0.1 to 621.2 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.9 to 620.3 yuan/barrel during the night trading session.

The price of raw materials rebounded after a continuous decline, and there is sufficient supply of pure benzene on the market. In mid July, there were more shipments from Jiangsu to the port, and pure benzene may continue to decline in the short term. We are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

On July 10th, the average market price in East China was 277960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream quotation range for tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 277500 to 279500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 278250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

In the morning session, the Shanghai Tin Exchange saw a narrow upward trend, with most of the morning spot markets following suit. However, in the second trading session, the market saw a slight expansion in gains. At the close of the 10th, the main contract of Shanghai Tin Exchange 2408 closed down 0.07%.

In the first five months, Indonesia’s exports decreased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the market has concerns about supply, providing support for tin prices. The domestic market is in a state of consolidation within a high range. Smelting enterprises still have a strong mentality of price support, and their shipment situation may be constrained. Downstream is in a wait-and-see mood, with high spot prices affecting transaction growth and the off-season continuing, and there is currently no upward trend in consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate with the overall market in the short term, maintaining a strong and volatile trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 9th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6460 yuan/ton, which is 0.16% higher than the reference average price of 6450 yuan/ton on July 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 9th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6666 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.99% compared to the reference average price of 6733 yuan/ton on July 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Entering July, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have fluctuated and stabilized. As of July 9th, the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6600 yuan/ton.

Cost side

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In early July, the market price of yellow phosphorus steadily increased. The operating rate of enterprises has declined, with yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly raising prices. Downstream demand performance is average, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus price will remain high in the short term.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The market price of phosphate ore has slightly increased this month. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate rock yard is mild, and some areas are experiencing tight supply of phosphate rock. It is expected that domestic phosphate ore prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

At present, the phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply and a moderate trading atmosphere. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Manufacturers and distributors tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with a single focus on discussion.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent phosphoric acid market has seen a narrow consolidation and operation. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is rising, and the cost of thermal phosphoric acid is supported. The supply of wet process phosphoric acid has decreased, but downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid may follow a slight increase in raw materials.

According to foreign news on July 5th, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw its crude oil exports drop to the lowest level in 10 months in June.

At the beginning of this week, cruise tracking data showed that global sea freight shipments in June decreased by 1 million barrels per day compared to May, with half of the crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia decreasing.

Data shows that Saudi Arabia’s sea freight crude oil shipments in June decreased by 529000 barrels per day to 5.606 million barrels per day, lower than May’s 6.135 million barrels per day.