According to foreign news on July 5th, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw its crude oil exports drop to the lowest level in 10 months in June.

At the beginning of this week, cruise tracking data showed that global sea freight shipments in June decreased by 1 million barrels per day compared to May, with half of the crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia decreasing.

Data shows that Saudi Arabia’s sea freight crude oil shipments in June decreased by 529000 barrels per day to 5.606 million barrels per day, lower than May’s 6.135 million barrels per day.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride in June fluctuated and fell. As of June 28th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% from the price of 8187.50 yuan/ton on June 1st. At the end of June, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7800-8000 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7300-7600 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: Tight supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. At the end of June, the price of industrial naphthalene rose, the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride rose, the market of ortho phthalic anhydride stabilized, and the market of ortho phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in June.

On the demand side: The trend of DOP on-demand procurement market is fluctuating and falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9875 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.35% compared to the DOP price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on June 1st; Compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 10th, it has decreased by 5.05%. The market for plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, and the production of plasticizer DOP enterprises remained stable. The supply of plasticizer DOP was sufficient. Downstream manufacturers of plasticizers are experiencing a decline in production and poor demand. The downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

Future Market Forecast

According to analysts of Shengyishe’s phthalic anhydride product data, in the future, in terms of cost, the recent trend of crude oil prices has fluctuated and increased, while the high price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride still exists; The downstream DOP market is fluctuating and falling, with poor demand for plasticizers and poor purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 27th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 7875.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price on Monday.

Recently (6.24-6.27), the market price of epichlorohydrin has remained stable. Recently, the price of propylene raw materials has slightly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine raw materials has risen. The cost support is relatively strong, coupled with the shutdown and maintenance of some equipment, the market supply has shrunk, boosting market sentiment. Downstream inquiries and procurement enthusiasm is average, with small orders and demand buying being the main focus. The focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market is mainly on stability.

Raw material propylene:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on June 26th, the reference price for propylene was 7200.75, an increase of 5.05% compared to June 1st (6854.60). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, providing support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Future Market Forecast:

According to analysts from Business Society, the current cost and supply side support for epichlorohydrin is relatively strong, but the demand side performance is average. Downstream follow-up is cautious, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has been continuously decreasing recently (6.17-6.26). On June 26th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3350 yuan/ton on June 17th, with an overall decrease of 5.07%.

Recently, the acetic acid market has been weak and declining. The acetic acid maintenance equipment in the market has recovered, and the mentality of manufacturers has weakened. Last week, the quotation of acetic acid factories was continuously lowered, while the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market was not high. Market trading was limited, and the atmosphere on the market was bearish. The acetic acid market maintained a weak operation. With the increase of acetic acid supply, the intention of manufacturers to discharge inventory was obvious, and the acetic acid quotation once again fell.

As of June 26th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ June 17th/ June 26th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ -50

North China region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ -125

Shandong region/ 3350 yuan/ton/ 3180 yuan/ton/ -170

Jiangsu region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3040 yuan/ton/ -85

Zhejiang region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3140 yuan/ton/ -85

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuates in a range. On June 26th, the average price in the domestic market was 2520 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 2520 yuan/ton on June 17th. The methanol market has sufficient supply, but downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. There is a strong need to follow up when entering the market, and demand support is insufficient. Methanol prices are weak and consolidating.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. On June 26th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% compared to the price of 5550 yuan/ton on June 17th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and downward, with insufficient cost support for acetic anhydride. At the same time, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply, downstream purchases on demand, and limited on exchange trading. The upstream market is driving the weak consolidation of the acetic anhydride market.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that the main acetic acid factories on the market are currently operating normally, and the inventory of enterprises is maintaining a low level of operation. However, downstream demand is weak, and more purchases are made according to demand. Market trading is limited, and the supply and demand game on the market is expected. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will observe and consolidate, and prices may operate steadily. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has been declining recently (6.18-6.25). On June 25th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% from 7900 yuan/ton on June 18th.

Cost side: Recently, the crude oil market has continued to rise, and the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks. The supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. In addition, with the continuous recovery of the Chinese economy and the peak oil consumption season in North America, multiple favorable factors support the upward trend of international oil prices. On June 20th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.29 per barrel, an increase of $0.58 or 0.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.71 per barrel, an increase of $0.38 or 0.4%.

Recently, the trend of the phthalic anhydride market has diverged, with neighboring phthalic anhydride operating weakly and naphthalene phthalic anhydride slightly rising. The continuous tight supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride in the northern region has driven up the local market price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride. From the perspective of demand, it is still weak at present, especially in the recent continuous losses of ortho phthalic anhydride. The market expects that the weak demand pattern will be difficult to change in the short term. However, naphthalene phthalic anhydride has been boosted by tight supply, and the market price has maintained a high volatility trend, which will continue to remain high in the short term.

This week, the mixed xylene market has been operating weakly. As of the 25th, the mainstream quotation range for the xylene market in Shandong Province was between 7730-7750 yuan/ton in the morning, while the mainstream quotation range for the xylene market in East China was between 7750-7760 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil prices has led to an improvement in market sentiment, but the downstream delivery capacity is limited, maintaining essential procurement and lacking demand support. This week, prices have remained stable and weak.

Market forecast: In the near future, crude oil prices will continue to rise, and finished oil products will soon face a new round of adjustment. Boosted by the rise of crude oil, there is a high possibility of an increase this time. Currently, the overall social inventory of xylene is low, and the good news still exists. However, the downstream delivery capacity is still weak, and the price of external MX has declined, which has a certain drag on the market. Overall, the market lacks downstream support and operates weakly.