Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has continued to decline, with most spot prices being lowered. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 28th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14637.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.10% compared to April 21st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam continued to decline this week. The price consolidation of raw material pure benzene is weak, and the cost support is average. In terms of supply, some maintenance companies in the early stage have gradually resumed work and returned, with weekly production continuing to rise and supply pressure increasing. The supply of caprolactam in the market is sufficient, but downstream demand is limited, which weakens the cost support for PA6.

In terms of supply: This week, the load of PA6 production enterprises has narrowed from a high level, with an average operating rate of around 81%, and the production level has basically remained flat compared to the previous horizontal trend. At the end of the month, the market had abundant supply of goods, and the overall support from suppliers for PA6 spot goods was average.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the recent decline in production in the main downstream industries. The operating rate of spinning is less than 80%, and the weaving load is stable at 70%. As the holiday approaches, some stocking needs are being released. However, due to the recent decline in PA6 prices, downstream enterprises are cautious in stocking up. On exchange trading has rebounded in a cautious atmosphere, supporting a narrow increase in demand for PA6.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market continued to decline this week. The price of caprolactam continues to decline, and the support for the cost side of PA6 continues to weaken. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable and there is little fluctuation, and the demand for May Day storage by terminal enterprises is gradually being released. Overall, the current market is characterized by a mix of long and short positions, and it is expected that the PA6 market may return to a calm consolidation trend before the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fluctuated and stabilized in April. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%.

Upstream methanol situation: In April, the domestic methanol market rose, with a decrease in domestic methanol supply but little change in demand. In addition, some downstream companies began pre holiday stocking before the May Day holiday, and production enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The domestic methanol market continued to rise and operate mainly. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has risen significantly, and downstream demand for essential purchases has been maintained. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may fluctuate and rise mainly.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 24th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9100 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has slightly decreased this week. On April 24th, the price of mixed xylene was 7910 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price of mixed xylene was 7930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from last week. Due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, demand expectations have weakened. International crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid has dropped this week. On April 24th, the price of acetic acid was 3350 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price of acetic acid was 3450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9% from last week. The acetic acid market is running weakly this week. The utilization rate of production capacity has significantly decreased, the inventory of manufacturers has decreased, and the quotation for acetic acid is relatively strong and continues to rise. As downstream restocking continues, the demand for purchasing in the market has gradually stabilized, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened, leading to a decrease in acetic acid prices.

In terms of demand

The downstream polyester industry has a stable operating load around 90%, with average order performance and low willingness to accept high priced raw materials. Downstream factories are cautious in their procurement. In March, there were quite a lot of equipment maintenance in enterprises, with inventory mainly running at a low level. In April, some enterprise equipment restarted, but it still needs some time to recover. With the continuous increase in operating rates, inventory is also constantly increasing. Dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products are in high demand for customers to purchase, and downstream trading is not active.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, cost support has weakened, domestic factories have started operating steadily, and the prices offered by holders have remained stable. Overall, shipments have been relatively flat. It is expected that the market price trend of meta phthalic acid will remain stable.

Product Name: Isopropanol

Latest price: The average market price on April 23rd is 8680 yuan/ton.

Analysis point: On April 23rd, the market price of isopropanol increased. Internationally, isopropanol foreign trade orders are relatively good, and isopropanol factories mainly issue foreign trade orders. On the domestic side, the raw material acetone has significantly increased, providing strong support for the raw material. Boosting confidence in the isopropanol market, active trading on the exchange, and difficulty in finding low-priced sources of goods.

Prediction: In the short term, the isopropanol market is expected to operate strongly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 15th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9662 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.32% and a year-on-year increase of 1.71% during the cycle. The raw material pure benzene tends to fluctuate strongly, resulting in high cost pressure. Part of the cyclohexanone units have been shut down, resulting in a slight decrease in the supply of cyclohexanone in stock. Downstream purchases are more on demand, and under cost pressure, the low price of cyclohexanone in the market has decreased.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuates at a high level. As of April 22nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8717.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 66.36%, and the weekly production is 100600 tons, which is a decrease from the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market price of caprolactam has fallen, some maintenance devices have resumed, supply has increased, and downstream PA6 chip prices have partially fallen. The procurement of raw materials for polymerization factories has slowed down, and overall market confidence is weakening. The focus of spot negotiations for caprolactam is decreasing. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is operating in a volatile manner, with high cost pressure. Downstream demand is average, and the market spot supply is stable. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will consolidate and operate in the short term.