Last week (February 10-16, 2025), the nylon filament market temporarily stabilized and consolidated. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with cost support still remaining. The downstream market is still in the initial stage of resuming work. In addition, most manufacturers have already stocked up before the year, and currently the main consumption of raw material inventory is low. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement is limited, and the actual transactions on site are limited, resulting in insufficient support from the demand side. Many businesses adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the market price of nylon filament is temporarily stable and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament remained stable last week (February 10-16, 2025). As of February 16, 2025, the price of DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) nylon filament in Jiangsu region is 16660 yuan/ton; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 14275 yuan/ton; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 17300 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Raw materials slightly increase

In terms of cost: Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has been raised to 11450 yuan/ton, and the market price of high-speed spinning nylon PA6 slices has slightly increased. The raw material market price trend has risen during the week, and the cost side support is strong.

Supply demand: Within the week, nylon filament manufacturers have resumed production and work, and the industry’s operating rate has gradually increased. The on-site supply has significantly increased, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable; The nylon filament market is operating at around 6.60% capacity. The downstream market is still in the initial stage of resuming work, and coupled with the fact that most manufacturers had already stocked up before the year, the current consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor, resulting in low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, limited on-site actual transactions, and insufficient support from the demand side.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the upstream pure benzene price is high, and there is little fluctuation in the on-site caprolactam equipment. The demand side mostly maintains on-demand procurement, and it is expected that the caprolactam market price will continue to rise next week.

Supply and demand side: Most nylon filament manufacturers plan to resume normal production next week, and the on-site supply will increase significantly. At the same time, the overall inventory level in the market may increase; Downstream manufacturers may gradually resume work, and each enterprise has a certain amount of raw material inventory. In addition, due to insufficient confidence in the future market and limited replenishment demand, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side of the nylon filament market will still be weak in the short term.

Overall, there is a possibility of an upward trend in the spot market for raw material caprolactam and the PA6 chip market, with strong cost support and downstream enterprises mainly executing previous orders. It is difficult for the demand side to show significant improvement. With mixed news on the market, analysts from Shengyi Society predict a slight increase in the short-term nylon filament market price, with an expected increase of 200-300 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market overall showed a weak trend this week (February 10-14), with the current average PTA market price in East China at 5084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the week.

At the beginning of the week, the PX market on the raw material side saw a slight decrease in the negative load of the 4 million ton PX plant in East China, and a 400000 ton PX plant in South Korea was shut down, which strengthened the expectation of a tightening of the PX supply and demand pattern. The strong rise in PX provided stronger support for PTA costs. But with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventories, in addition to signals from the Federal Reserve that the pace of macro interest rate cuts has slowed down, and the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions, international oil prices have declined. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.02 per barrel, providing downward support for PTA costs.

In terms of supply, the maintenance of a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Hainan has boosted the PTA spot market, with an industry operating rate of around 83%. In February, another 2.5 million plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the PTA operating rate is expected to decline. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream polyester load has decreased significantly, resulting in seasonal accumulation of PTA supply and demand. Social inventory is expected to reach new highs, and the impact of plant maintenance on PTA supply is limited.

In terms of demand, polyester plants that have reduced production and undergone maintenance before the Spring Festival in February have started to restart one after another, and the operating rate of the domestic polyester industry has slightly increased to over 82%. The terminal weaving market is gradually recovering and recovering after the holiday, but there are fewer new orders. Manufacturers have sufficient stock of raw materials before the holiday and are digesting their previous raw material inventory. In the short term, their willingness to purchase is not strong, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Analysts from the business community believe that with workers returning to their posts after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream enterprises will be more willing to replenish their stocks, and the demand will be further repaired. However, there is a possibility of easing the geopolitical situation in the crude oil market, and prices may run weakly, weakening the support for PTA costs. In addition, the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation in February is still relatively high, and the maintenance of some PTA factory equipment has limited impact on spot supply. The overall supply of goods is still abundant, and high inventory still suppresses PTA prices. Therefore, in the short term, PTA prices may continue to be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of TDI in the domestic market has remained stable and high recently. As of this Friday, TDI domestic goods are priced around 14600-14800 yuan/ton, while Shanghai goods are priced between 14800-15100 yuan/ton. The supplier has a strong willingness to raise prices, the downstream market is cautious in entering the market, and the demand for essential goods is the main focus. The downstream has a strong resistance to high priced goods, and it is expected that the TDI market will maintain a high level of operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since February, the domestic adipic acid market has seen an increase, supported by favorable factors, with a growth rate of over 2%. On February 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton. On February 12th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38%.

Liduo continues to rebound in the domestic adipic acid market

Starting from February, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid have risen, supported by the stocking situation in the terminal plastic industry. The prices of adipic acid manufacturers have also increased, and the domestic adipic acid market has seen improved transactions, leading to a warming of the market. The average market price has risen to 8500-8700 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 200 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid to late February, the demand in the terminal industry remained stable, the raw material market remained stable, and the adipic acid market had weak upward momentum in the future, mainly due to weak operations.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in early February was generally weak, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of February 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16400 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.51% compared to early February.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remained stable with an increase, and the industry average operating rate increased by about 3% to 81% compared to before the holiday. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply of goods is still abundant. The supply-demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged. The inventory position is on the high side, and the manufacturer’s pricing continues to be at the pre holiday level. The market supply side’s support for PC prices is average.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant rebound of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the long positions before the holiday gradually exhausted. In addition, the recovery of demand side after the holiday still needs a process, and the upward trend of bisphenol A price was hindered before entering the consolidation market. Upstream acetone has risen within ten days, boosting the confidence of industry players. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. The pre holiday purchasing logic is focused on weak demand, with average stocking efforts and a wait-and-see attitude among businesses. Recently, downstream factories have been slow to return due to holidays, and the load on end enterprises is not high. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market had a weak consolidation in early February. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, providing sufficient support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased by more than 3%, while the supply remains loose. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. In early February, the recovery of downstream demand was slow, and there was some pre holiday inventory digestion. It will take some time for businesses to return. It is expected that PC will continue to focus on organizing and running in the short term.