According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 10th, the price of 0 # zinc was 24626 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 6.31% from the zinc price of 25846 yuan/ton on January 1st.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the suspension of interest rate cuts and policy risks have put pressure on prices. At the same time, as the Spring Festival approaches and consumer seasonality weakens, the marginal pressure at both macro and micro levels has increased, leading to a decline in zinc prices.

Supply and demand side

The supply situation of raw material zinc concentrate has improved, and the focus of domestic and international processing fees has shifted upwards. Refinery raw material inventory has rebounded to conventional levels. As a result, the extent of profit loss has narrowed, and the supply of refined zinc continues to rebound month on month. However, due to the influence of the Spring Festival, there has not been a significant increase in volume yet. The zinc ingot import window has been closed for a long time, with only a small amount of supply flowing in, which has limited impact on the market.

Demand side

Terminal consumption is showing a trend of differentiation. The intensification of the trade in policy has provided support for automobile and home appliance consumption, leading to a surge in the wind and solar industry at the end of the year, while infrastructure consumption remains stable. However, there has been a seasonal decline in galvanized exports, and the real estate industry has not yet shown significant improvement. There is an expectation of seasonal decline in initial consumption, but the demand for stocking up before the Spring Festival is still strong, providing some support for the market.

comprehensive analysis

With the release of negative factors and the absence of significant supply side volume, seasonal accumulation is expected to be limited, and the downward space for zinc prices will also be limited.

Before the Spring Festival in January, the domestic ABS market in China showed a positive trend, with spot prices of various grades showing an upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11875 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of+0.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Before the Spring Festival, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry decreased compared to the previous period, and the industry load level decreased by about 3% to 7% compared to the first half of the month. Mainly due to the decrease in load of the Tianjin Dagu plant. Recently, the average weekly production has decreased to around 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has been simultaneously lowered to 160000 tons. Although the overall pattern of abundant supply of goods remains unchanged, the pre-sales of petrochemical plants before the holiday have been basically completed, and the inventory pressure in the future market has decreased. Overall, the recent supply side has provided sufficient support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Prior to the holiday, the trend of the upstream three materials of ABS showed a narrow consolidation, and the overall support for the cost side of ABS was still acceptable. The domestic acrylonitrile market has maintained a sideways trend recently. In the early stage of low load operation in the industry, it will take some time for supply to return, and the inventory position in the industry is low, resulting in strong prices. Downstream purchasing power has weakened before the holiday, but the overall market performance remains strong at a high level.

Recently, the butadiene market has also remained strong at a high level, and the available supply of goods in the spot market has remained relatively tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices. But with the continuous rise of spot prices in the early stage, the downstream high-level receiving ability gradually declines. At the same time, with the expectation of increased production capacity in the future, it is expected that butadiene may enter a weak consolidation market.

Styrene has recently risen and then leveled off. In late January, the return of styrene plants is common, and there is also a situation of accumulated cargo upon arrival at the port, leading to a relaxation of supply shortages. However, as upstream crude oil prices rise, the future market for styrene is bound to be boosted by raw materials such as pure benzene. Downstream demand remains stable before the holiday, with a focus on price consolidation.

In terms of demand, the export demand for some front-end household appliances in the terminal sector has been completely released, and downstream purchasing power has gradually weakened in the early stage. The terminal factories are gradually going on vacation, and the overall load position has fallen. Entering late January, as the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, some downstream enterprises are stimulated by the rising cost of ABS and are entering the market to purchase, with operations leaning towards pre holiday warehouse building. In addition, with the extension of the national subsidy policy for household appliances to stimulate the market, terminal products in the future may continue to receive policy support. Overall, the demand side has slightly improved its market support.

Future forecast

Before the Spring Festival holiday in January, the domestic ABS market saw an increase. The three upstream materials have leveled off, providing sufficient comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has fallen, and the pressure on the supply side has decreased. The demand side is mainly driven by rigid needs, with some warehouse building projects entering the market. Business analysts believe that the ABS market may enter a pre holiday period and stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 19th, the average price of acetic acid was 3010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 3010 yuan/ton on January 13th, with a month on month increase of 2.03%.

This week, the acetic acid market remained stable with small fluctuations, and enterprise quotations fluctuated. On the supply side, the utilization rate of domestic production capacity is relatively high, and factories are actively shipping. In some regions, downstream goods are well received, and enterprise shipments are relatively smooth. However, in the North China and Shandong regions, enterprise shipments are poor, and downstream pre holiday stocking enthusiasm is not high. The market price of acetic acid has shifted downward, with the main focus on CEOs in the East and South China regions, and manufacturer quotations remain stable.

As of January 19th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On January 13th/ On January 19th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 2910 yuan/ton/ 2895 yuan/ton/ -15

Shandong region/ 2910 yuan/ton/ 2890 yuan/ton/ -20

Jiangsu region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream methanol market has fallen from a high level. From January 13th to 19th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2739 yuan/ton to 2695 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.58%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic methanol market strengthened, but after reaching a high level, the market was generally buying gas. Later, with the increase in shipping costs, production companies offered discounts and shipped, causing the domestic methanol market price to fall.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has seen a narrow upward adjustment. On January 19th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5067.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.30% compared to the price of 5052.50 yuan/ton on January 13th. The upstream acetic acid market showed mixed ups and downs, with the cost of acetic anhydride generally average. Downstream demand was the main factor, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The supply and demand in the market were relatively balanced, and the price of acetic anhydride was adjusted upwards.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the current utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream pre holiday stocking enthusiasm is not high, the sales pressure on the supply side still exists, and the on-site trading is average. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market may be weak, and attention should be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13th to 17th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8471 yuan/ton to 8442 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.50%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.53%. Exploring the weakness of the domestic BDO market. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most downstream factories have reduced their workload or stopped for vacation, resulting in a decrease in the demand side’s digestion of raw materials. However, the supply of BDO is still acceptable, but the pressure of supply and demand has increased. Holding manufacturers have a shipping mentality, and the focus of negotiations is fluctuating downward.

On the supply side, although the Lanshan Tunhe Phase III agent has been replaced, Wanhua and Kaixiang have maintained stable operation after early maintenance and restart of parking devices, resulting in an increase in BDO supply and average support on the supply side. The supply side is affected by bearish factors.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has maintained stable operation. With the approaching Spring Festival and the increasing expectations of rainy and snowy weather in northern regions, downstream stocking enthusiasm has significantly increased. Recently, there has been a noticeable destocking in Wuhai and Ningxia regions. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is fluctuating at a high level. As of 3:00 pm on January 17th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2695 yuan/ton. The market for raw material calcium carbide remains stable and stable, while methanol prices tend to strengthen and consolidate. The cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the terminal spandex production has declined and the market is running weakly, resulting in multiple downstream PTMEG units experiencing load reduction, parking or maintenance expectations, and a decrease in industry load. Other downstream industries such as PBAT, TPU, and PU pulp have also experienced a significant decline in industry load due to poor terminal follow-up. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the operation of the equipment is relatively stable, and the supply side support is average; However, the downstream load of the terminal has declined, which has led to the digestion of inventory of raw materials, and the pre holiday stocking has basically ended, resulting in increased supply and demand pressure. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.

This week (1.11-1.17), the nickel market rebounded. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on January 17th, spot nickel was reported at 129075 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.48%.

Macroscopically, China has released its 2024 economic report card, indicating that the country’s economy is operating steadily with progress. The annual gross domestic product was 134908.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year. The total import and export volume of goods in 2024 was 43846.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year. The market expects global economic growth and strong demand for industrial metals, boosting the upward trend of the market.

On the supply side: Indonesia has set the nickel mining quota for 2025 at around 200 million tons, which is 400 million tons less than in 2024. Lunding Mining stated that nickel production will gradually decrease over the next three years. At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, destocking is weak, and the electrolytic nickel market remains loose. On January 17th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 27558 tons, an increase of 100 tons during the week; On January 16th, LME nickel inventory was 167994 tons, an increase of 3684 tons during the week.

In terms of demand, factors such as the approaching Spring Festival and holiday arrangements have weakened the demand in the spot market. The demand for nickel in the fields of essential needs replenishment, alloys, batteries, stainless steel, etc. is expected to maintain growth, but overall activity is still limited.

Market forecast: There is still resistance to the upward movement of nickel prices under inventory pressure, but with production control in the mining sector and expectations of global economic recovery, it is expected that nickel prices may experience strong range fluctuations.