According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 13th to 17th, the domestic BDO price remained at 8735 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 1.02% and a year-on-year increase of 1.67%. Partial device maintenance, agent replacement, short shutdown or load reduction, etc. have reduced the supply of goods, supporting the supplier’s stable market mentality. The downstream demand performance after the holiday is average, and there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory under cost pressure. The supply-demand negotiation game results in a weak and stable market trading focus.
In terms of supply and equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has declined to below 50%, with increased support from the supply side and active efforts from suppliers to stabilize the market. The supply side of BDO is expected to be affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: There have been periodic fluctuations in the domestic calcium carbide market. Recently, the supply instability in Inner Mongolia has strengthened, and the orderly use of electricity has led to unstable supply, resulting in a sharp decrease in periodic supply. Downstream maintenance is concentrated, and the supply-demand game is fierce, resulting in a decrease followed by an increase in the price of calcium carbide. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. As of 3:00 pm on October 17th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2260 yuan/ton. Fluctuations in raw material calcium carbide, weak consolidation of methanol, and mixed impact on BDO cost.
On the demand side, after the holiday, the main downstream PTMEG industry will undergo equipment maintenance, while other equipment will operate more stably, resulting in a reduction in overall demand side digestion. Before the National Day holiday, downstream industries mostly complete stocking up, and after the holiday, they tend to digest early inventory or maintain contract follow-up. The spot purchase volume is light and negotiated, suppressing the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: Some maintenance equipment will restart, leading to an increase in BDO supply. Downstream industries such as PTMEG and PBT have seen a decrease in production, resulting in a reduction in raw material digestion. The game between supply and demand is intensifying, and BDO analysts from Business Society predict that market volatility will be limited.

This week, with loose supply and sustained demand, some companies have seen an increase in inventory. The acrylonitrile market continues to decline due to oversupply, with prices hitting a new low for the year. As of October 16th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 7900-7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton compared to last week; Short distance delivery to Shandong market is 7850-7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.
Loose supply:
There has been no fluctuation in the equipment during the week, and the 92000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit of Fushun Petrochemical is still in a shutdown state. The restart time has been postponed, and the specific time is yet to be determined. Under the situation of loose supply, inventory has increased. According to statistics, as of September 18th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 79.37%, with a weekly output of about 90500 tons, which is basically the same as the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 51000 tons, which is+0.45 million tons compared to last week.
Demand maintenance:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 73.1%, an increase of 0.6% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 75.63%, which is -0.9% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 54.61%, which was -0.36% compared to last week. The overall demand is basically maintained.
Cost reduction:
This week, the production cost of acrylonitrile has decreased. As of October 16th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6200-6230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150-200 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6350-6430 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price decline of acrylonitrile narrowed, and the production loss situation slightly improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8630 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 2.71%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -698 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 122 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the current price has reached the lowest level of the year, and local buying has followed suit. However, the loose supply situation is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and the cost support has also weakened, making it difficult for the market to reach a bottom.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on October 16th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was reference 6650 yuan/ton. Compared with October 9th (cyclohexanone price reference 6900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.62%.
This week, the focus of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong has fallen, and the market is running weakly
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province has shown an overall weak downward trend. During the week, the focus of negotiations in the Shandong cyclohexanone market continued to shift towards lower levels, with factories and suppliers lowering their cyclohexanone shipment prices by around 50-150 yuan/ton. As of October 16th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong region is around 6600-6650 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall spot supply of cyclohexanone market is abundant, and the supply side is under pressure. The downstream demand is slow to follow up, and the supply and demand transmission is poor. The market support provided by the supply and demand side is insufficient.
In terms of cost: Recently, the pure benzene market on the raw material side has been declining, and the support for cyclohexanone on the cost side has continued to loosen. As of October 15th, data monitoring by Shengyi Society showed that the reference price of pure benzene was 5542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24% compared to October 1st (5848.67 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and downstream users are cautious in purchasing at low prices. The transmission performance between supply and demand is still relatively loose. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly be weak in consolidation and operation, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 15, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 5566 yuan/ton. Compared with October 9 (reference price of n-butanol is 5666 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76%. Compared with the reference price of 5850 yuan/ton for n-butanol on October 1st, the price has decreased by 284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.84%.
This week, the focus of negotiations in the Shandong n-butanol market has shifted downwards
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, showed a weak downward trend. During the week, Shandong n-butanol factories and suppliers narrowly reduced the shipment price of n-butanol by about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of October 15th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 5600-5650 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
On the supply side: In the early stage, the overall shipment of n-butanol in the market was hindered, and the inventory on site continued to increase. As we enter this week, the supply pressure of n-butanol is obvious, and factories are actively reducing prices for shipment. Therefore, the overall supply side has a negative impact on the market.
On the demand side: Currently, downstream trading of n-butanol is cautious, with a focus on digesting early-stage raw materials. The downstream inquiry atmosphere is average, with a focus on buying at low prices or for immediate needs. The demand side provides limited market support for n-butanol.
Future forecast
At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is relatively light, and the mentality of industry players is average. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, will mainly operate weakly and consolidate. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

After the National Day holiday, there will be a concentrated downstream maintenance in October, especially during the PVC maintenance period. The export of calcium carbide has strengthened its impact on the market, and the mainstream ex factory price of calcium carbide has decreased. According to statistics, downstream demand further decreased in mid October, and the concentrated arrival after the holiday may accelerate the further decline in downstream procurement prices. The overall downward trend of the calcium carbide market in October was more obvious, and the relief of oversupply caused by downstream centralized maintenance is still the main factor affecting the price of calcium carbide.