1、 Market price overview

As of January 9th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6287.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (6322.50 yuan/ton).

2、 Market supply and demand situation

1. Supply: In recent years, the production capacity of melamine has gradually increased, especially in the second half of 2024, resulting in a significant increase in the domestic supply of melamine. However, due to the overall poor profit situation in the industry, some manufacturers may choose to reduce production or postpone production, which to some extent alleviates the supply pressure in the market.

2. Demand: The main downstream industries of melamine include sheet metal, impregnated paper, coatings, etc. The development status of these industries directly affects the demand for melamine. In recent years, the real estate market has remained sluggish, leading to insufficient production by downstream enterprises associated with it, resulting in an overall decline in demand for melamine. But with the continuous relaxation of real estate policies and the gradual digestion of the existing market, downstream demand may rebound in the near future.

3、 Inventory and price

1. Inventory situation: Due to weak downstream demand, the inventory pressure of melamine enterprises is gradually increasing. However, due to the relatively controllable overall inventory pressure, the company did not adopt a strategy of large-scale price reduction and promotion, but chose to temporarily stabilize prices until market demand recovers.

2. Price trend: In the first half of 2024, the price of melamine remained relatively stable but showed a weak downward trend. In the second half of the year, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the continued weakness of downstream demand, the price of melamine further fell and remained at a low level. In the near future, with the gradual adjustment of supply and demand, the price of melamine is expected to stabilize or even rebound slightly.

4、 Market outlook

Price fluctuations may continue: Due to changes in supply and demand, production costs, and other factors, the market price of melamine may continue to fluctuate.

Market competition will intensify: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the continued weakness of downstream demand, competition in the melamine market may further intensify.

The export market is expected to expand: Against the backdrop of gradually improving international trade environment, China’s melamine export market is expected to further expand, thereby having a certain impact on domestic market prices.

In summary, the market atmosphere for melamine this week was average, but due to the overall low inventory pressure, prices have temporarily stabilized. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual adjustment of supply and demand and the continuous changes in policy environment, the melamine market is expected to usher in new development opportunities.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the price of isooctanol was 8033.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 5.70% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st. In January, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises remained stable. After the New Year’s Day holiday, inventory was replenished, and downstream manufacturers stocked up before the Spring Festival, resulting in a brief increase in demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January.

In January, the supply of isooctanol was sufficient and the demand increased

In January, isooctanol enterprises started production steadily, and with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, the supply of isooctanol increased. After the New Year’s Day holiday, downstream manufacturers replenished their inventory, and coupled with stocking up before the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol increased, leading to an increase in isooctanol prices.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the DOP price was 8513.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.49% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. The profit margin of plasticizer DOP is high, and plasticizer enterprises are actively operating. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is high, and plasticizers have a certain positive support for the demand for isooctanol. Plasticizer enterprises replenish their inventory and purchase isooctanol after the holiday, and downstream demand for isooctanol is supported.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that in January, the equipment production of isooctanol enterprises was at a high level, and with the addition of new production capacity, the shortage of isooctanol supply was alleviated, resulting in significant downward pressure on isooctanol; High profits, active downstream production, and post holiday inventory replenishment and pre Spring Festival stocking have provided significant support for demand for isooctanol. In the future, the supply shortage of isooctanol has been alleviated, with strong demand support. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 6th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1711 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82% from the reference average price of 1798 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have dropped significantly. As of January 6th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1560-1610 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1600 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1640 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1760 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, urea supply has been relatively loose this week, and market inventory has increased. In terms of demand, downstream demand is weak, and due to the recent decline in urea prices, downstream consumers are mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach. At present, the market trading is light, with transactions mainly at low prices.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has been weak and declining recently. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and manufacturers are continuously lowering prices in order to clear inventory. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the cotton yarn market continued to be sluggish this week, with prices temporarily stable. Currently, yarn mills have no profits, and orders are being executed on a case by case basis, resulting in an overall market stalemate. As of January 3rd, the reference spot price for 21S pure cotton ring spinning in Shandong Province, China is around 22565 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; The spot reference price for 32S pure cotton ring spinning is 24075 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

Market Overview: As the end of the year approaches, the market’s stocking mentality is not good, and lowering prices does not significantly stimulate downstream shipments. Some textile companies have reported increased difficulty in shipping. The price of cotton yarn is temporarily stable, and the market continues to be sluggish. Currently, yarn mills have no profit and are resistant to price reductions. Order execution is a matter of negotiation, and traders are mainly watching and waiting for large yarn mills to sell their goods and build warehouses before the holiday. The overall market is in a stalemate.

Decline in start-up: Due to increased sales pressure, large-scale yarn mills have maintained stable start-up, while some small and medium-sized yarn mills have continued to reduce start-up or shut down for holidays. As of January 2, the start-up load of mainstream textile enterprises was 60.2%, a month on month decrease of 3.53%. It is expected that the number of companies shutting down next week will continue to increase, while the number of startups will still slightly decrease.

Finished product inventory: The increase in finished product inventory of textile enterprises slowed down this week, and market shipments remained stable. Some enterprises stopped selling their inventory, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. As of January 2, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions was 35.5 days, with a week on week increase of 0.09%. As the Spring Festival approaches, some manufacturers have announced that they will take early holidays, and it is expected that inventory will decrease next week.

In terms of raw materials: Zheng cotton slightly rose this week, and there has been no clear guidance in the market recently. The upward trend in the market is mainly manifested by short positions taking profits and leaving. In terms of spot goods, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream textile companies have planned to shut down one after another, resulting in a significant reduction in stocking volume and market transactions. As most cotton mills come to an end, the daily processing volume has decreased, and cotton supply this year is relatively loose. It is expected that the cotton market will fluctuate weakly next week.

On the demand side: According to feedback from Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places, as downstream autumn and winter fabric sales turn from strong to weak, the operating rate of some textile factories in coastal areas continues to decline (a few textile factories have started production restrictions/reductions and the Spring Festival holiday mode). Although the yarn inventory of distributors is low, they have entered a “shutdown” state ahead of schedule due to the increase in export/domestic sales variables of cotton textiles and clothing in the first half of 2025, and the entire fabric consumption terminal has fallen into a “stagnant pool”.

Market forecast: In summary, the off-season in the cotton spinning market is gradually deepening, downstream orders are increasing less, textile companies are shipping slowly, production is decreasing, inventory is increasing, and the prices of conventional varieties are rolling inward, resulting in meager profits for textile companies. In addition, upstream cotton inventory is slightly loose compared to the same period. Due to general terminal demand, some textile companies have early holiday plans. It is expected that textile companies will sell goods at low prices to recoup funds. In the short term, they will face insufficient price incentives, and yarn prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected that large textile enterprises will continue to lower prices and sell goods near the Spring Festival, with a focus on the impact of terminal consumption and macroeconomic dynamics on the market.

With the arrival of the off-season for downstream demand, the epoxy propane market has stabilized this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 2nd, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8312.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.92% compared to the beginning of this week.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: With the gradual restart of enterprise facilities, the production of epichlorohydrin has increased. Individual load reduction maintenance of chlorohydrin method, Lihua Yi continues to operate at 60% load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical stops.

Raw material end: narrow width finishing of propylene is the main focus. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 1st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6835.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.15% compared to the beginning of last month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: Downstream demand sentiment is relatively cold, procurement follow-up is insufficient, market actual order trading is cold, and first-time purchases are the main focus, with a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, epoxy propane production has increased, and downstream demand side purchases are cautious and insufficient to follow up, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.