1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market fell in December. On December 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 15060 yuan/ton, and on December 30th, it was 14900 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.06%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market continued to decline in December. During the off-season of the industry this month, downstream market demand remained weak. The price of raw material titanium concentrate first fell and then rose, with the main trend being the increase in sulfuric acid prices. The production cost pressure of titanium dioxide enterprises is still relatively high. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream factories are expected to stock up before the holiday in the first half of the year, which may be beneficial for the market. At the end of the month, Titanium Sea and Yutu sent letters to domestic customers to raise prices by 500 yuan/ton, aiming to stabilize and stop the decline. The specific market performance still needs further observation. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in November 2024 was 6700.87 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.66% and a month on month increase of 3.94%; From January to November 2024, China imported a total of about 84700 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year increase of 15.51% compared to last year, and the import volume increased by about 11400 tons.

In November 2024, China’s titanium dioxide exports were 149300 tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared to the previous month and an increase of 19.54% compared to the same period last year; From January to November 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.7433 million tons, an increase of 16.35% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 245000 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of raw material titanium concentrate first fell and then rose in December, with the following main trends overall. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market situation, high cost pressure, strong market pressure sentiment, and cautious procurement. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the supply of raw materials has decreased, and processing plants have gradually stopped production. The overall inventory in the field is not high, and the supply is tight. The titanium ore market quotation has rebounded. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1400-1450 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 1950-2000 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2000-2200 yuan/ton. It is expected that in the short term, the mainstream titanium ore prices in the Panxi region will be mainly strong.

According to customs data, China imported 484700 tons of titanium ore in November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.84% and a month on month increase of 11.23%, with a monthly average price of 252.54 US dollars per ton; From January to November 2024, China imported approximately 4.5041 million tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, with an increase of approximately 596200 tons in import volume.

In November 2024, China exported 8191.49 tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 475.21% and a month on month decrease of 17.87%; From January to November 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium ore was about 75900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 241.88%, and the export volume increased by about 53700 tons.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market demand performance this month is still poor, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The focus of the titanium ore market is upward, and costs are under pressure. In the first half of the year, downstream factories had pre holiday stocking expectations. Titanium Sea and Yutu sent letters to raise prices domestically in order to stabilize and stop the decline, and further test the performance of the stocking market in the near future. Overall, the titanium dioxide market is still dominated by a wait-and-see approach, with prices remaining stable and subject to negotiation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25508 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 2.31% from the zinc price of 26110 yuan/ton on December 16th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, zinc production showed a slight increase trend, while the inflow of imported zinc ingots further improved the supply side situation. According to market feedback, there has been an increase in pre-sale supply recently, and it is expected that the arrival of zinc ingots will improve this weekend.

Raw material end

Currently, smelters are still operating at a loss, but the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has recently increased from 1500 yuan/ton to 1650 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for imported zinc concentrate has also been slightly raised to -30 US dollars/ton. In addition, with zinc prices remaining relatively high, the losses of smelters have narrowed, and their operating sentiment has also been boosted.

Smelting end

Some mines in northern China have gradually entered a seasonal shutdown stage, which is expected to lead to a reduction in domestic zinc concentrate production. However, it is worth noting that most domestic smelters have already completed winter reserve work ahead of schedule, resulting in continuous accumulation of zinc concentrate inventory at ports.

Inventory situation

Due to the control of goods and freight in the early stage of smelting plants, there has been no significant improvement in the arrival of zinc ingots in various regions. In this context, downstream enterprises are seizing opportunities for low-priced procurement, leading to a continuous decrease in social inventory.

comprehensive analysis

This week, the raw material support in the zinc market weakened, coupled with the inflow of imported zinc ingots, leading to an improvement in the supply side and a decline in zinc prices. We still need to pay attention to the arrival situation in various regions in the short term.

In December 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market remained weak and stable. The price trend of upstream raw materials market is not good, and the cost support is weak and stable; The inventory of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers is at a low level, and there is currently no obvious inventory pressure; Downstream yarn factories mainly consume raw material inventory and have low enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and although adhesive short fiber manufacturers have stable quotations, the actual focus of market negotiations has shifted downwards.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 30th, the domestic ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month and increased by 7.13% compared to the beginning of the year.

In terms of cost, the market price of the main raw material dissolving slurry has not fluctuated much, the market price of auxiliary liquid alkali has continued to decline, the market price of sulfuric acid has risen, the cost center of gravity has fallen, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers has slightly decreased.

Supply inventory: In December, the overall supply of adhesive short fibers in the market slightly increased compared to the previous month. During the month, some adhesive short fiber units in Shandong region are scheduled to undergo one month of maintenance, while the operating load of adhesive short fiber units in Sichuan region has increased, resulting in a slight increase in on-site supply. The number of signed orders within the month has decreased compared to the previous month. With orders from various adhesive short fiber manufacturers being delivered one after another, the overall inventory level in the market has significantly increased, but there is no obvious inventory pressure.

On the demand side: The trading atmosphere in the human cotton yarn market is poor, and prices have slightly decreased. The demand in the terminal market continues to be weak, and the inventory of finished products in the downstream cotton yarn market continues to accumulate. The main consumption of raw material inventory during the month is weak, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not strong. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side.

Future forecast

The operating rate of the downstream adhesive short fiber market may still be at a high level, and there is still demand for the dissolution slurry market. Therefore, it is expected that the dissolution slurry market will mainly consolidate next month, with stable cost support. Supply and demand side: Some maintenance facilities in Shandong region may restart in the early stage, and there may be a slight increase in on-site supply; The downstream market is gradually entering the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the new round of signing volume may decrease, further weakening demand.

Overall, the upstream main raw material dissolution slurry market is undergoing consolidation and operation, with a narrow increase in on-site supply. Downstream factories or most of them are reducing production and going on holiday, resulting in poor performance on the demand side. Market news is mainly negative. Business analysts predict that the price trend of the domestic adhesive short fiber market will slightly decline next month, with a decline of about 100-200 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 27th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6850-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7300-7500 yuan/ton, with a partial adjustment in focus.

In terms of cost: The domestic PTA spot market has maintained an upward trend this week, but the increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 26th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4831 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to December 18th. Geopolitical concerns, despite the unstable demand outlook, have limited the upward potential due to expectations of an excess of crude oil.

In terms of production and sales, in terms of terminal weaving, some spring orders have been issued, but new orders continue to perform poorly. The polyester filament market is in a long short game, and recent new inquiries and orders have continued to narrow. Downstream users have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and market participation enthusiasm is not high. Today, the average production and sales of polyester are at 33.3%.

Business analysts believe that overall, the polyester filament market is expected to show a volatile trend, with weak fundamentals that may suppress price increases. The price fluctuation range may be between 50-100 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8841 yuan/ton on December 20th, and the average price was 8881 yuan/ton on December 26th, with a price increase of 0.45% during this period. LDPE (2426H) decreased by 0.47% during this period. HDPE (2426H) increased by 0.29% during this period.

Recently, polyethylene has shown mixed ups and downs. Linear products remain strong, while low-voltage products fluctuate slightly and rise slightly, while high-voltage products decline. The supply of high-voltage products has increased, but the price trend is weak; The supply of linear products is tight, and the supply pressure is high, resulting in a strong upward trend in prices. The planned production of facilities in 2024 is generally delayed. The downstream industry of polyethylene has entered the off-season, with limited demand support. The narrow range consolidation of crude oil prices, overall, indicates weak oil and commodity prices, which is bearish for the polyethylene market.

On December 26th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8437 yuan and closed at 8463 yuan, up 19 yuan, with a high of 8466 yuan and a low of 8422 yuan, up 0.23%.

The production capacity of new facilities is gradually increasing, there are fewer planned maintenance facilities, the previously shut down facilities are gradually being restarted, and coupled with the gradual arrival of imported goods at the port, there are expectations of an increase in the supply side; Downstream demand continues to weaken, with rigid procurement being the main focus; The cost side crude oil support is limited, and it is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the linear product trend is relatively strong.